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dc.contributor.authorSerwadda, David
dc.contributor.authorGray, Rebecca R.
dc.contributor.authorTatem, Andrew J.
dc.contributor.authorLamers, Susanna
dc.contributor.authorHou, Wei
dc.contributor.authorLaeyendecker, Oliver
dc.contributor.authorSewankambo, Nelson
dc.contributor.authorGray, Ronald H.
dc.contributor.authorWawer, Maria J.
dc.contributor.authorQuinn, Thomas C.
dc.contributor.authorGoodenow, Maureen M.
dc.contributor.authorSalemi, Marco
dc.date.accessioned2013-02-18T06:12:33Z
dc.date.available2013-02-18T06:12:33Z
dc.date.issued2009-09-11
dc.identifier.citationSerwadda, D., Gray, R.R., Tatem, A.J., Lamers, S., Hou, W., Laeyendecker, O., Sewankambo, N.K., Gray, R.H., Wawer, M.J., Quinn, T.C., Goodenow, M.M., Salemi, M. (2009). Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in East Africa. AIDS, 23(14)en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10570/1087
dc.descriptionAuthor Manuscripten_US
dc.description.abstractDesign—We sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data. Methodology—We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility. Results—HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale. Conclusion—This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this ‘landscape phylodynamics’ approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH. This project has been funded in whole or in part with federal funds from the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, under contract N01-CO-12400. M.S. was supported by NIH award number 00069244 and the Experimental Pathogen Innovative Grant (2008) awarded from UF.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectEpidemicen_US
dc.subjectEvolutionen_US
dc.subjectGeographic Information Systemen_US
dc.subjectHIV-1en_US
dc.subjectPhylodynamicsen_US
dc.subjectAfricaen_US
dc.subjectHIV/AIDSen_US
dc.titleSpatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in East Africa.en_US
dc.typeJournal article, peer revieweden_US


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