The impact of health care financing on under-five mortality rates in Uganda

Abstract

The inadequacy of health care financing in Uganda, coupled with its disproportionate reliance on private and external sources, presents a critical concern for healthcare outcomes. Despite a marked increase in GDP per capita, healthcare spending remains significantly below recommended levels. This study addresses the potential ramifications of these challenges on under-five mortality rates, considering the context of the Anti-Homosexuality law, which poses a risk to a substantial portion of healthcare funding. The study employs a time series dataset spanning 2000-2020 to examine the intricate relationship between health care financing proxied by current health care financing and under-five mortality rates in Uganda. Methodologically, both Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) frameworks were considered. The shift from VAR to VECM was driven by the recognition of potential cointegration among variables, ensuring a more nuanced analysis accommodating both short-run causal relationships and long-term equilibrium considerations. Results indicate existence of a relationship between health care financing and under-five mortality rate but one deemed statistically insignificant. This aligns with broader observations in cross national studies. Divergence from previous studies underscores the methodological nuances, highlighting the influence of model selection and choice of independent variables. In exploring short-run causality, the study finds insufficient evidence to establish a causal relationship between the variables considered and the dependent variable, consistent with earlier research. In conclusion, the study emphasizes the complexity of the relationship between healthcare spending and under-five mortality in Uganda. While identifying both short and long-run relationships, the statistical insignificance cautions against definitive conclusions, urging further investigation and refinement of the modeling approach to capture the intricacies of this dynamic relationship.