Data for estimating GMXL models for the paper "Forecasting the market potential for circular economy inputs: adoption rates and aggregate demand for fecal sludge-derived fertilizer in Uganda"

Abstract

Conventional linear agriculture ("extract and dispose") degrades agroecosystems, threatening long-term food security. Transitioning to a circular economy (CE) offers a pathway to sustainable food production, yet its adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is hampered by a lack of market feasibility data for waste-to-value initiatives. Fecal sludge-derived fertilizer (FSDF) is one of the initiatives with a potential to support the CE. This study estimated potential uptake rate of FSDF and its market demand. Using a discrete choice experiment, primary data were collected from 351 farmers in Wakiso District, Uganda and analyzed via a Generalized Mixed Logit model and sensitivity analysis. Results reveal that potential FSDF uptake ranges from 34% to 94%, driven primarily by access to extension services and membership in agricultural groups. Under current socioeconomic and institutional conditions, baseline aggregate demand is estimated at 31,500 tons annually, with the potential to reach 61,000 tons if institutional barriers are addressed. The baseline potential uptake rate of 48% provides a viable foundation for transitioning to CE farming in SSA. To maximize market scale, policymakers should expand agricultural extension access and foster farmer group membership, giving industrialists the empirical evidence needed to align production capacity with market demand.