School of Economics (SE) Collections

Permanent URI for this collection

http://10.29.1.53:4000/handle/10570/173

Browse

Recent Submissions

Now showing 1 - 5 of 500
  • Item
    The causal relationship between population growth and economic development: A case for Uganda (1983 -2023)
    (Makerere University, 2025-10) Kiyingi, Samuel
    This study investigates the short-run and long-run effect of population growth on economic development in Uganda over the period 1983–2023. Employing annual secondary time-series data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, the analysis applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, complemented with structural break testing, to capture both immediate and equilibrium effects. Unlike earlier studies, this research integrates variables such as agriculture, gross fixed capital formation, and industry into the growth model, providing a more comprehensive sectoral lens. Theoretically, the study situates Uganda’s demographic dynamics within the Solow growth model, offering empirical evidence on whether rapid demographic expansion dilutes capital accumulation or can generate a demographic dividend. The results indicate that rapid population expansion exerts a significant negative effect on economic development in the long run, while gains in agriculture, investment, and industry mitigate this effect with positive gains. In the short run, agricultural growth has a statistically significant positive impact on economic development. An error‐correction coefficient of –0.511 (p < 0.001) signals that over half of any disequilibrium is corrected within a year, confirming a stable long‑run relationship. To harness Uganda’s demographic transition, the study recommends strengthening family‑planning and education programs, modernizing agriculture, and scaling up productive investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. Keywords: Population Growth; Economic Development; ARDL; Uganda
  • Item
    Effect of exports on economic growth in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025-03) Nambooze, Sandra
    This study investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in Uganda from 1990 to 2023. Given the crucial role of exports in driving economic performance, particularly in developing nations, the research examines both the short-term and long-term effects of export on Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using the Solow Growth Model as a theoretical framework, the study employs time-series data and econometric modeling techniques, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, to analyze key macroeconomic variables like labor force, capital formation, technology, and exchange rates. The findings reveal a positive long-term relationship between exports and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, with a unit increase in exports leading to a 0.446 increase in GDP growth. The study shows a positive relationship between technological advancements, gross capital formation and economic growth, while labour force and exchange rate depreciation have a negative effect on economic growth in the long run. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance Uganda's export capacity and strengthen its economic resilience including assuring bilateral and multilateral agreements through trade negotiations and agreements to open new markets and lower trade barriers. Furthermore, guarantee infrastructure development, skill development, and training, as well as export financing and credit support to strengthen the competitiveness of export sectors and drive sustainable economic growth. KEY WORDS; Population growth, Economic development
  • Item
    Effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: evidence from Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025-10) Muwugumya, Anna. Mary
    The relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth in Uganda remains inconclusive, with existing studies presenting contradictory findings. This study investigated the effects of exchange rate volatility on the economic growth of Uganda specifically, to find out if there is an exchange rate volatility clustering effect in Uganda and also investigate the clustering effect of exchange rate volatility on the GDP of Uganda. The study used EGARCH model to analyse exchange rate volatility and the ARDL model to assess its impact on Uganda's economic growth from 1990 to 2024. This study conclusively establishes the presence of significant exchange rate volatility clustering in Uganda over the period 1990–2024. On the other hand, exchange rate volatility had an insignificant impact on Uganda’s economic growth in both long and short run. It was further established that gross fixed capital formation was the primary driver of economic growth in Uganda in both the long and short run. The study recommends that policymakers should prioritize strategies that encourage domestic and foreign investment, this could include providing tax incentives for capital investment, improving access to affordable finance for businesses, and enhancing infrastructure to reduce the cost of production and attract long-term investment. Also, the central bank should adopt policies that mitigate excessive short-term fluctuations, such as using foreign exchange reserves to smooth extreme shocks, promoting hedging instruments for exporters and importers, and improving market transparency. Subject Keywords; Exchange rate volatility, Economic growth, Uganda
  • Item
    The impact of local government revenue collection on service delivery in Uganda: a case study of Entebbe Municipal Council
    (Makerere University, 2025) Mutesi, Babale Janat
    The study examined the impact of local government revenue collection on service delivery in Entebbe Municipal Council. It focused on three specific objectives, 1) to examine the challenges faced by Entebbe municipal council in revenue collection, 2) to examine how revenue collection could be improved and 3) to critically examine the relationship between revenue collection and service delivery in the local government. The researcher used both qualitative and quantitative research designs with a sample of 150 respondents who included the staff of Entebbe municipal council. Qualitative data was obtained through questionnaires, interviews, and observation while quantitative data was obtained through computation and analysis. The study revealed significant challenges affecting revenue collection in Entebbe Municipal Council, including; poor tax collection systems, political interference, inadequate sensitization, traditional defaulting, and suspension of graduated taxes. The study highlighted several strategies to improve revenue collection, including; strengthening tax collection systems, community sensitization and education, motivating revenue collectors, reducing political interference, privatization of revenue collection, training and capacity building for revenue collectors, and enhancing taxpayer compliance. The study also revealed that there is a clear correlation between improved revenue collection and the ability to fund services like healthcare, road infrastructure, and waste management, which would directly improve the quality of life for residents in Entebbe. The findings highlight a direct link between revenue collection and service delivery: poor service delivery is often associated with declining revenue collection, while improved revenue collection leads to better service delivery. The researcher concluded that while local governments face challenges in revenue collection, these challenges are manageable. To improve service delivery, local governments must address the challenges in revenue collection. The researcher suggested that future studies should be conducted to analyze any other factors that affect revenue collection as well as service delivery in local governments.
  • Item
    Determinants of private domestic investment in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Nakaima, Betty
    Uganda’s pursuit of economic transformation hinges critically on accelerating domestic private investment, yet persistent structural, institutional, and macroeconomic constraints have kept investment levels below national development targets. This study investigates the determinants of domestic private investment (DPI), measured as gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP), in Uganda over the period 1990–2020. Guided by the Flexible Accelerator Theory, Credit Rationing Theory, and Real Options Theory, the research employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the dynamic effects of GDP growth, exchange rate stability, domestic credit to the private sector, infrastructure investment, and institutional quality proxied by regulatory quality, control of corruption, and government effectiveness on DPI. The results reveal a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship among these variables, with domestic credit (coefficient = 0.60, p < 0.01) and infrastructure investment (coefficient = 0.50, p < 0.05) exerting strong positive effects on DPI. GDP growth also has a positive long-run effect (coefficient = 0.30, p = 0.057), while exchange rate depreciation significantly reduces investment (coefficient = -1.20, p < 0.05), underscoring the destabilizing effect of macroeconomic volatility. Regulatory quality shows a marginally positive effect (coefficient = 0.80, p = 0.080), whereas control of corruption and government effectiveness are statistically insignificant. The short-run dynamics indicate similar trends, with a significant error correction term (-0.65, p < 0.01), indicating that 65% of disequilibrium adjusts annually toward the long-run equilibrium. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power (Adjusted R² = 0.67) and passes all diagnostic and stability tests. These findings emphasize that macroeconomic stability, improved credit access, and infrastructure investment are crucial for unlocking Uganda’s private investment potential, while institutional reforms though currently limited in effect remain essential for reducing transaction costs and uncertainty. The study contributes to empirical literature by integrating institutional variables into a robust time-series framework and offers actionable policy recommendations aimed at expanding credit to SMEs, stabilizing the exchange rate, upgrading infrastructure, and improving regulatory efficiency to stimulate domestic private investment and advance Uganda’s development agenda