Multi-dimensional peace keeping missions and state building in conflict states: the case of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)/African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of AMISOM/ATMIS multi-dimensional components in advancing state-building efforts in Somalia. The study noted that despite initial AMISOM/ATMIS operational successes that resulted into the Al-Shabaab terror group losing its strongholds in Mogadishu and parts of South and Central Somalia and whereas there have been systematic efforts by AMISOM/ATMIS/AUSSOM to create an enabling environment for rejuvenation of FGS institutions, Somalia‟s security and political landscape remains fragile. In addition, the economic sector has not delivered expected public goods for the betterment of the population. Against this background, the study specifically assessed the impact of (1) ATMIS led security sector reforms in enhancing the efficacy of the Somali state to ensure long term stability (2) the role of reconstruction and development assistance initiatives in peace building and reduction of poverty as a driver of conflict and (3) the impact of Somalia‟s federal political system in enhancing state building outcomes. Two theoretical frameworks were adopted to ground the study into existing literature. These included the Liberal Peace Building Theory (LPBT) and Developmental Peace Mission Theory (DPMT). In addition, a mixed research methodology combining both quantitative and qualitative techniques was adopted in order to develop an in-depth understanding of the study topic. Since study was conducted in Uganda and Somalia, the study population involved diverse groups including; Somali refugees living in Uganda, police and Army officers who have served under AMISOM/ATMIS, ATMIS FHQ and Mission Staff and Al-Shabaab defectors. The sample size was determined using Yamane‟s formula and simple random and purposive sampling techniques. Data was collected through questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions and document reviews ensuring validity and reliability. In order to maintain the integrity of the study, ethical considerations were adhered to. Regarding AMISOM/ATMIS led Security Sector Reforms, Pearson correlation (r = 0.304, p = 0.000) indicated a moderate positive relationship between SSR‟s and state-building process. Similarly, reconstruction and development Initiatives were found to have positive effects on reducing poverty, improving public services and fostering state legitimacy. As such, the Pearson correlation (r = 0.261, p < 0.01) showed a moderate positive relationship between reconstruction and development initiatives to state-building efforts. On the role of the federal political system in consolidating the Somali state, the Pearson correlation (r = 0.276, p = 0.000) indicated a moderate positive relationship between the federal political system and state-building agenda. Federal political structures explained 7.1% of the variance to state-building outcomes (R² = 0.076, Adjusted R² = 0.071). However, from a qualitative perspective there was a moderately split opinion regarding the efficacy of the federal system in fostering state consolidation. In summary, the study found that ATMIS-led security sector reforms, reconstruction and development initiatives and federal structures have a positive relationship to the state-building process in Somalia. However, the explanatory power of these variables was found to be moderate, suggesting that the three factors are insufficient to anchor the state building process in Somalia hence the need to explore other elements influencing state building outcomes.