Impact of aquaponic kits in household incomes of small holder farmers in Entebbe, a propensity-score matched analysis.

Abstract

Uganda’s agricultural sector, particularly among smallholder farmers, is increasingly constrained by land scarcity, climate change and declining fish stocks. This study evaluated the impact of adopting aquaponics kits on household livelihoods, specifically household income, among smallholder farmers in Entebbe Town Council, Uganda. The study applied a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to control for observable confounding and construct a counterfactual framework for impact estimation. A total of 1,700 households were surveyed, with 594 treated households matched to an equal number of control households. A logarithm with a caliper and covariate balanced was confirmed via standardized mean differences (SMDs < 0.1). Logistic regression conducted on the matched sample revealed that households adopting aquaponics kits were significantly more likely to report increased income (Coeff = 0.55 units; 95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6007; p < 0.000). Sensitivity analysis using Rosenbaum bounds affirmed the robustness of the findings to potential hidden bias (Gamma = 1 – 2.5, p = 0.000). The study provides evidence the aquaponic kits through the ADMIRE project significantly enhanced household income by 55.7% among small holder farmers in Entebbe. Key words: Admire project, Aquaponic kits, Urban farming, House welfare, Integrated farming system