School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collections

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Now showing 1 - 5 of 420
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    Macroeconomic determinants of retail banking loan performance in Uganda: a case of ABSA Bank
    (Makerere University, 2025) Ainomugisha, Denis
    This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of retail banking loan performance in Uganda, focusing on Absa Bank Uganda. Using quarterly secondary data from 2015 to 2023, the research investigates the influence of key macroeconomic variables GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and exchange rate on loan performance. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique. The findings reveal that the exchange rate has a statistically significant positive impact on loan performance, suggesting that depreciation of the Uganda Shilling is associated with improved loan recovery efforts, possibly due to stricter repayment enforcement or inflation induced repayment prioritization. In contrast, GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment were found to have no significant effect on loan performance during the study period. The model explained approximately 77.9% of the variation in loan performance, confirming a strong explanatory power. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations are a critical driver of retail loan performance in Uganda. It recommends that banks strengthen foreign exchange risk management and enhance credit risk assessment based on past repayment patterns. Subject keywords: Macroeconomic determinants; Retail banking; loan performance; Uganda; ABSA Bank
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    Determinants of participation in informal and formal financial institutions in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Kanakulya, Christoher
    This study aimed at identifying the determinants of participation in informal and formal financial institutions in Uganda. The objectives were to: establish the relationship between demographic factors and participation in informal and formal financial institutions; examine the relationship between socio-economic factors and participation in informal and formal financial institutions; assess the relationship between financial factors and participation in informal and formal financial institutions; and establish the relationship between demographic, socio-economic, and financial factors and the simultaneous participation in both informal and formal financial institutions. The study utilized nationally representative data from the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2019/20 and employed a multivariate probit model to estimate the key factors shaping financial institution participation choices. The empirical findings indicated that participation choices varied significantly across gender, education, marital status, residence, occupation, and income levels. Females, rural residents, older individuals, and low-income earners were more likely to use Informal Financial Institutions, while males, urban dwellers, professionals, and educated individuals tended to use Formal Financial Institutions. Borrowing behaviour and financial decision-making also had a notable influence, with joint decision-making linked to reduced reliance on Informal Financial Institutions. Simultaneous use of both Financial Institutions was more common among older, educated, and higher-income individuals, and less likely among the never-married and low-skilled workers. The study concludes that both structural and behavioural factors influence financial participation patterns in Uganda. To enhance sustainable and inclusive financial inclusion, the study recommends leveraging Informal Financial Institutions as gateways to formal inclusion, promoting joint household financial decision-making, simplifying access to formal credit, addressing gender-based disparities, expanding financial literacy, and scaling up formal financial infrastructure particularly in underserved regions. These policy recommendations provide actionable insights that align with Uganda’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy (2023–2028), which aims to expand access to quality and affordable formal financial services and promote poverty reduction through inclusive economic growth. Subject Key words: Informal financial institutions; formal financial institutions; Uganda
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    Health-related quality of life, viral load suppression and survival among older persons living with hiv in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Atuhairwe, Christine Kim
    The population of older persons living with HIV (OPLHIV, aged ≥50 years) is steadily increasing, presenting an emerging public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries. Advances in ART have improved viral suppression, survival, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), yet evidence on these outcomes among older adults in Uganda remains limited. This study assessed HRQoL, viral suppression, and survival among OPLHIV in Uganda. A cross-sectional survey involving 439 OPLHIV was conducted using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect socio-demographic, lifestyle, clinical, and non-clinical data. HRQoL was measured across seven domains and analyzed using ordinal regression. Viral load suppression (<200 copies/mL) was examined using binary logistic regression. Additionally, a retrospective cohort analysis of 30,758 electronic medical records from TASO Centres of Excellence (1987–2023) assessed survival using Cox proportional hazards regression. The mean age of participants was 58.0 years (SD ±7.4), and 42% reported good HRQoL. Multiple socio-demographic and clinical characteristics—such as age ≥60 years, education level, marital status, WHO clinical stage II, unemployment, TB history, multiple sexual partners, and viral load >200 copies/mL—were significantly associated with HRQoL domains (p<0.05). Viral suppression was achieved by 88% of respondents. Factors associated with viral suppression included unemployment (aOR=4.1; 95% CI 1.73–9.84), good adherence (aOR=16.6; 95% CI 1.91–145.60), spousal/family support (aOR=2.6; 95% CI 0.98–7.19), receiving food supplies (aOR=6.0; 95% CI 1.17–31.58), absence of recent opportunistic infections (aOR=0.28; 95% CI 0.07–1.09), and WHO stage II (aOR=0.14; 95% CI 0.04–0.53). Survival analysis showed that being female (aHR=1.19; 95% CI 1.15–1.22), married (aHR=0.99; 95% CI 0.77–0.80), separated/divorced (aHR=0.85; 95% CI 0.80–0.90), WHO stage II (aHR=1.66; 95% CI 1.62–1.73), viral load >200 copies/mL (aHR=1.49; 95% CI 1.44–1.54), and fair adherence (aHR=0.94; 95% CI 0.74–1.19) were significantly associated with mortality risk. Older persons living with HIV in Uganda face important challenges in health-related quality of life, viral suppression, and survival. While viral suppression was high, fewer than half achieved good overall HRQoL, with outcomes strongly influenced by age, education, marital and employment status, WHO clinical stage, viral load, and adherence. Survival was significantly associated with sex, marital status, disease stage, viral non-suppression, and adherence. These findings highlight the need for comprehensive, age-responsive HIV care that combines routine clinical monitoring with psychosocial and socioeconomic support to improve quality of life, sustain viral suppression, and enhance survival among older adults living with HIV.
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    Determinants of maize commercialization among farmers in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025-12) Tuhaise, Lydia
    Maize is a vital crop in Uganda, serving as both a staple food and source of income, majorly for smallholder farmers. Maize is also one of Uganda’s top ten agricultural export products, contributing up to 1.7% of the country’s total exports. Despite its importance, maize commercialization remains low, highlighting the need to investigate its determinants. Using secondary cross-sectional data from the 2020 Annual Agricultural Survey, descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the 3,464 farmers and Pearson correlation analysis to identify variables for further analysis. A Fractional Logistic Regression Model was fitted to examine the determinants of maize commercialization among farmers in Uganda, with all analyses conducted at a 5% level of significance. The findings revealed that 48.5% of maize produced by farmers is sold, indicating a moderate level of its commercialization in Uganda. The analysis further estimated that a minimum maize yield of 2.741 tonnes per hectare (95% CI: 0.060, 5.423) is required for a household to attain a Household Commercialization Index of 65%, the highest benchmark reported in recent Ugandan literature. In addition, a crop area of at least 4.120 hectares (95% CI: 1.851, 6.388) is required for a household to attain the same commercialization level. Results from the Fractional Logistic Regression Model showed that higher education (Average Marginal Effect (AME) = 0.030; P=0.044; 95% CI: 0.001, 0.058), use of irrigation (AME = 0.258; P= 0.000; 95% CI: 0.231, 0.284), fertilizer use (AME = 0.261; P= 0.003; 95% CI: 0.224, 0.297), use of modern agricultural machinery (AME = 0.039; P= 0.000; 95% CI: 0.021, 0.057), membership in a farmer group (AME = 0.027; P= 0.010; 95% CI: 0.014, 0.315), and access to agricultural extension services (AME = 0.150; P= 0.000; 95% CI: 0.124, 0.175) had statistically significant positive effects on maize commercialization. Subject keywords; Maize commercialization, Farmers, Uganda
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    Correlates of teenage pregnancy in Western Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Kiyimba, Joseph Raymond
    Teenage pregnancy remains a major public health and socio-economic challenge in Uganda, where approximately one in four adolescent girls becomes pregnant before the age of 19. The burden is particularly high in the western sub-regions of Tooro, Bunyoro, Ankole, and Kigezi. Guided by Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Systems Theory, this study examined the socio-demographic, economic, and reproductive health correlates of teenage pregnancy among adolescent girls aged 15–19 years in Western Uganda. The study used the women's dataset of the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), analyzed a weighted sample of 1,017 adolescent girls, using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and binary logistic regression to identify factors associated with teenage pregnancy. The findings reveal that 24% of teenage girls in western Uganda had experienced a teenage pregnancy. Older teenagers aged 18-19 exhibited a significantly higher prevalence of 47% compared to 12% among younger girls (15-17). Multivariate analysis showed that older teenagers (18-19) were nearly two times more likely to experience a teenage pregnancy (AOR = 1.82, 95% CI:0.95-2.68) compared to those younger than 18 years. Married teenagers were two times (AOR = 2.13, 95% CI:0.95-3.32) more likely to experience teenage pregnancy compared to unmarried peers. Those who had received family planning information from a health facility also showed increased odds (AOR = 1.67; 95% CI: 0.71-2.63). Early sexual debut (ages 8-15) significantly increased the likelihood of teenage pregnancy (AOR = 5.77; 95% CI:2.91–8.63). The study concludes that teenage pregnancy in Western Uganda is influenced by factors operating across multiple ecological levels: individual (age, early sexual initiation), relational (marital status), and institutional (health system engagement). Addressing teenage pregnancy, therefore, requires an integrated, multi-level approach that strengthens comprehensive sexuality education, delays marriage and sexual debut, and ensures accessible, youth-friendly reproductive health services. It is recommended that the Ministries of Health and Education, together with local governments and development partners, implement coordinated programs that provide accurate sexual and reproductive health information in schools and communities, enhance adolescent-friendly service delivery, and address socio-cultural norms that perpetuate early marriage and limited contraceptive use. Subject keywords; Teenage pregnancy, western Uganda