School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collections

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    Modelling and forecast of Uganda’s merchandise trade balance: application of ardl and arima-garch models
    (Makerere University, 2025-11) Niwagaba. Judith. Stella
    Uganda’s merchandise trade balance has persistently remained in deficit, posing challenges to external sector stability and sustainable economic growth. This study modelled and forecasted Uganda’s merchandise trade balance using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and ARIMA–GARCH frameworks to identify macroeconomic determinants and predict volatility. Monthly time-series data from July 2001 to June 2024 were obtained from the Bank of Uganda and the World Development Indicators. The ARDL approach was applied to estimate both short- and long-run determinants of the trade balance, while the ARIMA–GARCH model was employed to analyse volatility clustering and forecast future trade balance movements. The findings show that in the long run, the export price index, foreign direct investment, and GDP significantly influence Uganda’s trade balance. In particular, EPI and FDI positively affect trade performance, whereas the import price index exerts a negative effect, suggesting that higher import costs worsen trade deficits. In the short run, lagged trade balance, GDP growth, and price indices significantly determine trade outcomes, Specifically, current GDP growth negatively impacts the trade balance (D(GDP) = -0.3735, while its lagged value shows a positive effect (D(GDP) [-1] = 0.2999. EPI and IPI positively influence short-run trade performance, with coefficients of 0.5160 and, respectively. with the error-correction term of -0.5686 confirming strong convergence toward equilibrium. The GARCH model results indicated substantial volatility clustering in Uganda’s trade balance, implying sensitivity to external shocks and policy changes. Forecast simulations from the ARIMA–GARCH model projected persistent trade deficits through 2027, with cyclical fluctuations peaking around mid-2026. The study concludes that Uganda’s trade imbalance is both structural and cyclical, driven by external price dynamics and domestic macroeconomic factors. It recommends policies that promote export value addition, diversification, and FDI in export-oriented sectors, alongside effective risk-management frameworks and early-warning systems. Strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals, improving competitiveness, and reducing import dependency will be essential for achieving a more balanced and sustainable trade position in the long term. Subject keywords; Uganda’s merchandise trade balance
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    Impact of aquaponic kits in household incomes of small holder farmers in Entebbe, a propensity-score matched analysis.
    (Makerere University, 2025-10) Lubega, Aloisious
    Uganda’s agricultural sector, particularly among smallholder farmers, is increasingly constrained by land scarcity, climate change and declining fish stocks. This study evaluated the impact of adopting aquaponics kits on household livelihoods, specifically household income, among smallholder farmers in Entebbe Town Council, Uganda. The study applied a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to control for observable confounding and construct a counterfactual framework for impact estimation. A total of 1,700 households were surveyed, with 594 treated households matched to an equal number of control households. A logarithm with a caliper and covariate balanced was confirmed via standardized mean differences (SMDs < 0.1). Logistic regression conducted on the matched sample revealed that households adopting aquaponics kits were significantly more likely to report increased income (Coeff = 0.55 units; 95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6007; p < 0.000). Sensitivity analysis using Rosenbaum bounds affirmed the robustness of the findings to potential hidden bias (Gamma = 1 – 2.5, p = 0.000). The study provides evidence the aquaponic kits through the ADMIRE project significantly enhanced household income by 55.7% among small holder farmers in Entebbe. Key words: Admire project, Aquaponic kits, Urban farming, House welfare, Integrated farming system
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    An investigation into the mediation effect of inflation to factors that affect total market capitalization in Uganda : a time series analysis
    (Makerere University, 2025) Asaasira, Brian
    Market capitalization serves as a key indicator of financial market performance and economic stability. In Uganda, its growth has been constrained by macroeconomic factors such as GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI), Export Value, Unemployment, Final consumption Expenditure inflation, and savings. However, the mediating role of inflation in this relationship remains underexplored. This study employed time-series data from 1992 to 2023 and utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, mediation analysis, and error correction modelling to examine both short- and long-term effects. The analysis sought to establish how inflation influenced the relationship between macroeconomic variables and market capitalization in Uganda.Data analysis was done using STATA. The findings revealed that GDP growth (23.99032, 0.008), FDI (4.9651, 0.018), net national savings (4.936724, 0.002) and exports value (2.88e+07, 0.005) had a direct positive impact on total market capitalization, while inflation (-1.25e+09, 0.027), unemployment (-3.44e+08, 0.000) and final consumption expenditure (-.6722415, 0.007) had a direct significant negative effect. Inflation also mediated the relationship between GDP (-4.49E-09, 0.028), FDI (3.79E-09, 0.038) and savings (-1.49E-09, 0.000), weakening their positive impact on market capitalization. In the short run, inflation (-1.36e+08, 0.030) creates volatility, discourages investment and increases borrowing costs, while in the long run, inflation (-6.54E+07, 0.025) erodes investor confidence and reduces capital market participation. The study concluded that inflation was a critical factor influencing Uganda’s financial markets, both directly and as a mediator. I recommend that effective inflation-targeting policies, stronger monetary and fiscal coordination, and capital market reforms including pension reforms are essential to enhance investor confidence and market growth. Policymakers should prioritize financial literacy programs, improve listing requirements, and introduce diversified financial instruments to foster capital market expansion and long-term stability.
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    Modelling the effect of interest rates on household debt levels in Uganda (2010-2024)
    (Makerere University, 2025) Nakirwana, Jocelyn
    This study investigates the effect of interest rates on household debt levels in Uganda from 2010 to 2024, a period marked by increasing financial inclusion and persistent macroeconomic instability. Using monthly time series data from the Bank of Uganda, the study models household debt as a function of lending rates, inflation, GDP growth, money supply, and the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was employed, given the mixed stationarity of the variables, to capture both short- and long-run dynamics. Diagnostic tests, including CUSUM stability tests and checks for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, were conducted to ensure model robustness. Results reveal a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between interest rates and household debt, where a 1% rise in interest rates reduces household credit by Ugx. 0.0311 Million. Conversely, inflation and economic activity positively affect debt levels, with CIEA exerting the strongest influence (coefficient = 4.4201, p < 0.01), and inflation contributing modestly (coefficient = 0.0188, p < 0.01). Interestingly, money supply negatively influences household borrowing in the long run, while its short-run effects are positive and lagged. The error correction term indicates a moderate adjustment speed of 13.85% per month toward long-run equilibrium. Granger causality tests affirm unidirectional causality from interest rates and economic activity to household debt, highlighting the predictive role of these variables in shaping borrowing patterns. The study concludes that lending rates, economic activity, and inflation significantly shape household debt dynamics in Uganda. High interest rates constrain borrowing, while inflation and economic growth fuel debt accumulation. Policymakers are advised to adopt balanced monetary policies that ensure affordable credit access while safeguarding against excessive indebtedness. Strengthening financial literacy, enhancing regulation of lending institutions, and improving macroeconomic stability are critical steps toward fostering sustainable household borrowing. Further research could explore the interaction between formal and informal lending channels and the role of demographic factors in household debt behavior. Subject Keywords: Interest rates; household debt levels; Uganda
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    Determinants of net migration in Uganda: a time series study from 1992 to 2023
    (Makerere University, 2025) Natwijuka, Watson
    Uganda faces a severe human capital crisis due to persistent negative net migration over the past three decades, where more skilled professionals emigrate than immigrants enter the country. This exodus of doctors, engineers, and educators has created critical skills shortages, with the net migration rate worsening from -0.5 to -2.3 per 1,000 population between 1992-2015 threatening Uganda's development plans. The study investigated this phenomenon using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling of World Development Indicators data from 1992-2023. The results show that factors that were associated and responsible for worsening negative net migration included; population growth (192,251.9, p < 0.001), political stability (82,548.33, p <0.002) measured by the World Bank's Political Stability Index (Political stability) and external debt (900.60, p <0.016) as they all had a significant positive relationship with net migration whereas foreign direct investment (-0.0000547, p < 0.001) was found to reduce the out migration of people as it revealed a negative relationship with net migration. Notably, the positive coefficient for political stability suggests improved governance enables mobility without addressing underlying economic push factors. The study revealed no significant short-run relationship. These findings indicate Uganda's migration crisis stems from structural labor market deficiencies rather than temporary economic shocks. The study recommends focusing on attracting foreign direct investment that supports labor-intensive industries rather than capital-intensive projects that do not generate significant employment, policy makers and stakeholders implementing population growth control measures such as controlling child and early marriage since it’s a major contributor to Uganda’s high population growth that was found to worsen out migration, implement targeted policies that stimulate employment in labor-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture value chains, and ICT Such measures are essential for retaining skilled professionals and achieving Uganda's Vision 2040 development goals, as current trends risk perpetuating cycles of underdevelopment and dependency Subject keywords : Migration; Uganda