School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collections

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Now showing 1 - 5 of 385
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    The effect of government expenditure on unemployment in Somalia (1990-2023)
    (Makerere University, 2025-03) Mohamed, Abdirahman Abdihamid
    This study examined the effect of government expenditure on unemployment in Somalia during 1990-2023. Secondary annual data was obtained from the World Bank and the Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRIC). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used to establish the short- and long-run relationship between government expenditure and unemployment, while the Granger causality test was used to determine the direction of causality among the variables. Unemployment was the dependent variable in this research, whereas government expenditure, GDP, agricultural value added, and foreign aid (ODA) were the independent variables. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used in testing stationarity of data, and this indicated that variables were integrated with mixed orders and therefore the use of the ARDL model is justified. Findings from the long run indicate that a rise by 1% in government spending reduces unemployment by 0.03%. Similarly, the rise by 1% in GDP reduces unemployment by 0.049%, confirming that economic growth enhances employment. Agriculture value-added was also found to have a strong negative effect, whereby a 1% rise in agricultural output lowers unemployment by 1.70%. By comparison, a rise of 1% in foreign aid (ODA) adds 0.0037% to unemployment, suggesting inefficiency in aid utilization or dependency effects. In the short run, a 1% rise in GDP reduces unemployment by 0.32% at lag zero and by 0.15% at lag one. Production in agriculture adds to unemployment by 0.41% in the initial period but reduces it by 1.50% at lag one in the short run. The Granger causality test confirms a one-way causality from public expenditure to unemployment, indicating that fiscal policy in Somalia influences labor market dynamics but may not be directly addressing unemployment reduction. The recommendations emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of government expenditure to ensure that fiscal policy effectively contributes to job creation. Maintaining widespread GDP growth is essential for facilitating labor absorption and decreasing unemployment rates. Prioritizing the enhancement of agriculture, the largest employer, is essential, especially through strategies that increase productivity and utilize labor effectively. ODA management requires reform to ensure that aid aligns more closely with national priorities and effectively contributes to reducing unemployment. Subject Keywords: Government expenditure; Unemployment; Somalia
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    Financial credit allocation and sectoral economic growth nexus in Uganda: evidence from panel data analysis
    (Makerere University, 2025-09) Katende, Steven
    This study examined the nexus between financial credit allocation by Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) and sectoral economic growth in Uganda, using data from 10 economic sectors for financial years of 2010/11 Quarter 1 to 2023/24 Quarter 4. Employing the Dumitrescu Hurlin granger causality and the Panel ARDL method. The results revealed that total lending by commercial banks strongly granger causes sectoral economic growth at 1% significance level, and micro-deposit-taking institutions credit also granger-causes sectoral economic growth at 5% level of significance, while credit institutions’ total lending showed no granger-causal effect. In the long run, total lending by commercial banks exerted a significant positive effect on sectoral economic growth with a 1% increase in commercial banks’ credit is associated with 0.38% in sectoral GDP, credit from micro-deposit-taking institutions, also had significant positive effect with a 1% increase associated with 0.123% increase on sectoral GDP. Conversely, credit from ODCs’ credit showed no significant long-run effect. However, overall, none of the ODCs’ credit had significant effect on sectoral GDP. For specific sectors, in the short run, there were significant disparities in the effects of credit across sectors. Credit from commercial banks demonstrates the positive effect particularly on trade and a negative effect on transport and communication sector while Credit from micro-deposit taking institutions also showed positive significant effect on Agriculture, Community & Social Services, and Electricity & Water, however ODCs’ credit from didn’t show short run significance. Macroeconomic variables, particularly high lending rates and inflation constrain the effectiveness of credit, yet currency depreciation enhances sectoral growth, underscoring the need for stable economic policies. The study recommends strengthening commercial bank and micro-deposit-taking institution lending to productive sectors, enhancing credit allocation efficiency. Subject Keywords; Financial credit, Economic growth, Uganda
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    Determinants of time to death among prostate cancer patients at Uganda cancer institute. A survival regression analysis
    (Makerere University, 2025-10) Mpagi, Julius
    The study sought to examine the determinants of time to death among prostate cancer patients following diagnosis at the Uganda Cancer Institute. A retrospective cohort design was employed, involving 433 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2016, who were subsequently followed for five years. Kaplan–Meier estimates were used to determine the median survival time, while the log-rank chi-square test was applied at the bivariate level to assess differences in survival across categorical variables. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify the socio-demographic and clinical factors influencing survival outcomes among prostate cancer patients. The results revealed a median survival time of 19 months (95% CI: 14,23) following diagnosis, with patients’ ages ranging from 45 to 90 years (median = 70 years). Out of the 433 patients, 264 (60.9%) died within five years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that advanced age at diagnosis was significantly associated with a higher risk of death (HR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.03,1.06; p -value = 0.000). Similarly, patients diagnosed with bone metastasis (HR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.03,1.70; p-value = 0.030) and those with a Gleason score of 8 or higher (HR = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.23,3.02; p-value = 0.004) had significantly shorter survival times compared to their counterparts. These findings indicate that survival among prostate cancer patients at the Uganda Cancer Institute remains low, with advanced age, presence of bone metastasis, and high Gleason score as key prognostic factors. The results reinforce the need to strengthen early detection and screening programs and to enhance regular clinical monitoring, particularly for older patients and those with high-risk disease profiles. Subject Keywords; Death, Prostate cancer patients, Uganda cancer institute.
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    Correlates of intimate partner violence among ever-married women (25-39) years in rural Uganda
    ( 2025) Oguttu, Geoffrey
    Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) among ever-married women in Uganda remains a critical public health and social concern, particularly in rural areas. It results in physical injuries, mental health problems such as depression and anxiety, reproductive health complications, reduced economic productivity, and negative effects on children’s well-being. Despite its significant impact on women’s lives, IPV often goes unreported, posing challenges for intervention and justice. This study analyzed the correlates of IPV among ever-married women aged 25–39 years in rural Uganda. The study used secondary data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS). A weighted sample of 2,924 ever married women aged 25–39 years in rural Uganda was analyzed. Descriptive statistics, Pearson chi-square tests, and multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression were applied to identify the determinants of IPV. The prevalence of IPV among ever married women aged 25–39 years in rural Uganda was 41.3%. Education, wealth status, polygyny, duration of marriage, and husband’s alcohol consumption were significant predictors. Women with primary education were more likely to experience IPV compared to those with no education (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.08–1.74). Higher wealth status was protective, with women in the middle (OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59–0.95), fourth (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.60–1.03), and highest (OR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.31–0.72) categories less likely to experience IPV compared to those in the lowest category. Women in polygynous marriages had higher odds of IPV, particularly those with one (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.06–1.58) or two co-wives (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.14–2.28). Longer marital duration increased the likelihood of IPV, with significantly higher odds observed among those ever married for 5 years above as compared to 1–4 years. Husband’s alcohol consumption was the strongest predictor, with women whose husbands drank being more than twice as likely to experience IPV (OR = 2.60, 95% CI: 2.20–3.08). There is an urgent need for interventions to address IPV among ever-married women in rural Uganda. Efforts should focus on promoting women’s education, economic empowerment, addressing risks associated with polygyny and long marital duration, and reducing alcohol consumption among men. By targeting these factors, it is possible to reduce IPV and improve the well-being of women in this population.
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    Factors that determine adoption of modern agricultural technologies among crop farmers in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Namubiru, Evelyn
    This study examines the factors influencing agricultural technology adoption among crop farmers in Uganda, focusing on socio-demographic characteristics, resource access, and geographical factors. Using a Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model to analyze survey data collected during the Annual Agricultural Survey, respondents across multiple districts, key findings reveal that age, sex, marital status, education, region, farmer group membership, farm size, cooperative membership, distance to market, access to extension services, and access to credit all significantly affect technology adoption. Older farmers, males, and those with lower education levels were less likely to adopt technologies, while unmarried individuals, larger households, and cooperative members showed higher adoption rates. The study also found that farmers located further from markets and those in the Northern and Western regions faced significant adoption challenges. Access to extension services and credit positively influenced the likelihood of technology adoption, highlighting the importance of support services and financial access in promoting innovation uptake. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted interventions to improve technology adoption, including region-specific support, increasing access to extension services and credit, promoting cooperative membership, and improving infrastructure to reduce market access barriers. The recommendations aim to foster more inclusive technology adoption, particularly for marginalized farmer groups.