Determinants of maize commercialization among farmers in Uganda

Abstract

Maize is a vital crop in Uganda, serving as both a staple food and source of income, majorly for smallholder farmers. Maize is also one of Uganda’s top ten agricultural export products, contributing up to 1.7% of the country’s total exports. Despite its importance, maize commercialization remains low, highlighting the need to investigate its determinants. Using secondary cross-sectional data from the 2020 Annual Agricultural Survey, descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the 3,464 farmers and Pearson correlation analysis to identify variables for further analysis. A Fractional Logistic Regression Model was fitted to examine the determinants of maize commercialization among farmers in Uganda, with all analyses conducted at a 5% level of significance. The findings revealed that 48.5% of maize produced by farmers is sold, indicating a moderate level of its commercialization in Uganda. The analysis further estimated that a minimum maize yield of 2.741 tonnes per hectare (95% CI: 0.060, 5.423) is required for a household to attain a Household Commercialization Index of 65%, the highest benchmark reported in recent Ugandan literature. In addition, a crop area of at least 4.120 hectares (95% CI: 1.851, 6.388) is required for a household to attain the same commercialization level. Results from the Fractional Logistic Regression Model showed that higher education (Average Marginal Effect (AME) = 0.030; P=0.044; 95% CI: 0.001, 0.058), use of irrigation (AME = 0.258; P= 0.000; 95% CI: 0.231, 0.284), fertilizer use (AME = 0.261; P= 0.003; 95% CI: 0.224, 0.297), use of modern agricultural machinery (AME = 0.039; P= 0.000; 95% CI: 0.021, 0.057), membership in a farmer group (AME = 0.027; P= 0.010; 95% CI: 0.014, 0.315), and access to agricultural extension services (AME = 0.150; P= 0.000; 95% CI: 0.124, 0.175) had statistically significant positive effects on maize commercialization. Subject keywords; Maize commercialization, Farmers, Uganda