Assessment of the potential for implementing Transit-Oriented Development in Mbarara City

Abstract

Mbarara City, Uganda’s second-largest urban centre, is experiencing rapid urbanisation, leading to increased automobile dependence, inefficient land use patterns, and fragmented growth. These challenges have resulted in traffic congestion, increased travel distances, and unsustainable development. Therefore, there is a pressing need for integrated planning approaches that align land use and transportation systems to guide compact, accessible, and resilient urban development. This study aimed to assess the potential for implementing Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) in Mbarara City. The specific objectives were to identify and map relevant spatial indicators, compute the Potential TOD Index, and determine TOD hotspots within the city. A spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) integrated with GIS was used to analyse four TOD criteria: density, diversity, design, and economic development. Indicators were computed, standardised, and weighted based on expert input. Spatial statistical techniques, including Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*, were applied to assess clustering and identify significant TOD-ready zones. The results revealed a clear core–periphery pattern. Higher Potential TOD Index values and significant clustering were found in the central wards of Kakoba, Kamukuzi, and Nyamitanga, which exhibit dense, mixed-use development and economic activity supportive of TOD. In contrast, peripheral wards displayed low index scores due to low density, limited land use diversity, and weak connectivity, indicating low immediate TOD readiness. The spatial clustering confirmed that TOD interventions should be geographically prioritised rather than uniformly applied. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that TOD can be effectively implemented in Mbarara’s urban core to address automobile dependence, improve land use efficiency, and guide sustainable growth. Policymakers and planners are encouraged to prioritise investments in TOD hotspots while gradually enhancing conditions in near-ready areas and adopting alternative sustainable urban models where TOD is currently unfeasible.