Assessing impact of agricultural activities on forest cover. case study: Bugoma Forest-Hoima District

Abstract

In this study an attempt to generate and predict the encroachment on the forest cover for Bugoma forest for a period of 3years ever since part of the forest land was given out for sugarcane plantation. This study was assessed using Sentinel II satellite images of 2020, 2021, and 2022 and to predict the encroachment for the year 2027 using CA Markov model in Satellite images of Supervised image classifications with the help of random forest were used in this study. The validity of the Cellular Automata Markov model was used to predict future of LULC of 2027. The estimation includes two modules to predict the future land use pattern of the study area such as MARKOV and CA-MARKOV model/modules. In the Bugoma central forest reserve, LULC types such as agriculture, grassland, and forests were discovered. According to the study's findings, between 2020 and 2022, there was a 12% drop in forest cover and a 9% increase in farmlands. This change in forest cover was mostly caused by agricultural growth and the region's rising demand for firewood. The habitats of important species in the region may be impacted by these changes (González-Robles et al., 2020; Romero-Muoz et al., 2020). Reduced habitat sizes and habitat destruction could result in species restrictions and extinction. The reduced forest cover was predicted by 2027, which is consistent with prior data (Gashaw et al., 2017; Liping et al., 2018) and the extent of the forestland cover is projected to be replaced by farmland in the anticipated period of time, maybe as a result of farming in the future together with population growth in the region